CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping during the resistance ceremony celebrations (Photo: Reuters).
Author Xiao Xiaogong has an analysis on Vision Times showing the signs of the Chinese regime’s preparations for war, but it appears to be just for prestige and not feasible.
Here is the full text of the article:
When the US presidential election entered the final stages, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took a tougher stance on the United States. The Chinese government listed economic needs as the conditions for going to war. The revision of the CCP’s Defense Law and the Korean War commemoration activities not only marked the further escalation of the Sino-American Cold War, but also enabled all social classes in the United States to see clearly. the true side of the CCP and its ultimate intentions for the United States.
For the United States, the CCP is a more dangerous strategic enemy than the Soviet Union.
Revise the law on national defense, increase the “conditions of war”
On October 22, Chinese state-owned media Duowei News in a report titled, “Highlighting the Uncertainties of International Security, China’s National Defense Law further sets out the” conditions for the opening of war, “” said: CCP recently entered the order to revise the National Defense Law and is preparing to expand the “conditions for the opening of war”, listing economic needs as an important reason for “mobilization of war”, C ‘ is a very dangerous signal.
Beijing Youth Newspaper WeChat official account “Zhengzhijian” reported that this time Defense Minister Wei Fenghe reported at the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting: “Facing developments and to the change of the world situation, at home, in the party, in the army, the current national defense law cannot fully respond to the mission and the new demands of national defense and construction. the new era, requiring changes and improvements. The threats and security challenges facing China are increasingly diverse and complex, which urgently requires corresponding adjustments to the defense policy system. “
According to Chinese state media reports, China’s current National Defense Law currently has 12 chapters and 70 articles. This reform is expected to amend 50 articles, add 6 articles and delete 3 articles. In particular, clearly defined “when sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, security and development interests are threatened”, the mobilization of the whole country or partial mobilization, to which the content is added. is “the benefits of development”.
So what is the purpose of the CCP’s intention to change the National Defense Law?
Because in order to wage wars with foreign countries, any country needs to mobilize troops and civilians to go to war. Measures in this regard generally include the following:
First, to increase the supply of soldiers and recruit demobilized soldiers to return to military service.
Second, convert part of the civilian economy into military service and extend working hours.
Third, in accordance with the needs of the war, the limited supply of civilian consumer goods and civilian industrial products.
This time, the CCP revised the National Defense Law to mention “total encouragement”, but did not add the sensitive word “war” next to “total encouragement.” In fact, there is only one type of “total mobilization” linked to the national defense law, which is total mobilization for war.
The CCP’s sudden amendment to the National Defense Law was essentially a legal preparation for mobilization for war. Once the war started, anyone could immediately enter the state of war. Of course, when the upper classes of the CCP and the military have decided to go to war, there is no need to go through legal proceedings. Prior to that, the CCP had waged the Korean War and the Vietnam War … they all hid secrets from the locals, so the state media relied on predetermined versions of propaganda to conduct social mobilization.
The most notable aspect of this revision of the National Defense Law is the intentions of the CCP, here there is an anomaly when the CCP uses economic needs as a reason to implement a general mobilization of war (domestic media ). water is often referred to as “development benefits”).
Under normal circumstances, if the security and defense of a nation faces a serious threat, then that country can be prepared for war. Therefore, the implementation of a general mobilization of war is understandable.
However, the CCP now believes that as long as the economic development is in difficulty, their country may be ready to go to war. In other words, through this revision of the National Defense Law, the CCP has extended “war conditions” to foreign war indefinitely. Any argument can easily be linked to “economic interests”, and it can then be used by the CCP as a pretext to start war.
The CCP wants to follow in the footsteps of the Imperial Japanese Army?
The Imperial Japanese Army instigated the Pacific War and was ultimately defeated by the United States. In that year, the Empire of Japan preparing for war against the United States had the following characteristics:
First, when the Japanese navy is relatively backward, it will first step up the arms race to prepare for war, until the world’s largest fleet of aircraft carriers is built. The next step is to prepare to challenge the United States.
Second, the Japanese Navy has always viewed the US military as a fictitious adversary, conducting very difficult training and developing a battlefield strategy for naval warfare against the United States, however, lack of a clear long-term strategy against it. United States. Joint Fleet Commander Isoroku Yamamoto once told Prime Minister Konoe Fumimaro that he could pull off a sneak attack, but two years later he would be at a disadvantage on the battlefield. I don’t know how to end the war, how to avoid losing the war in the war.
Third, before Japan launched the Pacific War, it had long relied on oil imported from the United States, but due to the Japanese invasion of China and Indochina, the United States began to s ‘impose. economic sanctions against Japan and restriction of oil exports to Japan. Japan immediately used the excuse of economic need (oil) to start the Pacific War.
After the war, Japan rethinks the war, some have said that if the Japanese army is the army led by the “bureaucracy”, the combat officers do not understand the war, but that is not a problem, for the “bureaucrats” will determine their direction and their objectives. However, Japan at that time was a militaristic country, a country in military hands, these soldiers did not understand war, they brought war and war closer together and asked why. to lose. Who are their ancestors who transformed Japan into war militarism? In their minds, war is only one of the means to achieve political goals and the goal of war is not to fight the enemy.
In recent years, the CCP’s military expansion and preparation against the United States has almost replicated the ancient practices of the Japanese Empire, the first of which is to increase the arms race and prepare for war. . a large fleet and navy began conducting combat training against the United States after their strength increased (Exercise Midway at the end of January of this year was one example).
Recently, the CCP has used economic needs to facilitate its preparations for war. But the great Japanese imperialism is finally lost in the war against the United States, will the CCP succeed?
Obviously, the CCP does not want to face the lesson of the fall of the Great Japanese Empire, because:
First, it is not difficult to use military conflict to create war, the difficulty lies in how to end the war. The logic itself is to keep fighting until one side is completely defeated. The Sino-US Cold War that just started in July this year has revealed the rapidly escalating military confrontation.
Second, war fundamentally cannot solve economic problems, otherwise war will aggravate economic problems. In the past, Japan occupied oil fields in Indonesia and met its demand for oil for 2 years, then due to the sinking of a large number of tankers, the country finally lost the battle due to exhaustion of its stocks. oil reserves, they fought for lack of oil, and lost for lack of oil.
Third, economic needs can only be met in a peaceful environment. Once the war begins, all civilian economic activity must give way to the demands of war. The hardships of the economy and life in the country will eventually erode the army, the morale of the soldiers and the people, making the army weaker and weaker in resistance and inevitable. step by step to fail.
What is presented here is just the end of a traditional conventional war. For the nuclear powers, after one of the nuclear powers has started a conventional war, there is another terrible result: tactical nuclear weapons can be used to save defeat on the battlefield. This is why during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the armies of both sides that obeyed the “iron law” were not directly involved in conventional land wars, let alone. . Use nuclear weapons to fight the other side.
If the CCP starts a war because the economy is threatened, will it be possible to get what it wants?
Normal economic development of any country can only take place in a state of peace. The economic development of each nation can be subject to nuisances, which must be dealt with in accordance with international regulations and negotiations between countries. Can war be waged to obtain the benefits necessary for economic development? Can economic advantages which cannot be obtained in normal competition be gained by war?
If the CCP’s economic benefits are truly CCP claims that can be smoothly realized throughout the national economic cycle, then if the CCP’s economic interests are in trouble, this problem lies in their own country.
However, this is not the case, the CCP economy remains heavily dependent on imports and exports.
In terms of imports, in order to maintain normal economic activities, the CCP must import a large amount of raw materials such as petroleum, feed grains, metal ores and high-tech parts (chips) …
In terms of exports, to obtain the foreign currency necessary for importation, they have to sell a large number of industrial products on the European and American markets.
In a peaceful state, foreign related import and export activities may be subject to various nuisances, such as anti-dumping or export restrictions by a country, or shipping route. Imports were blocked due to unwanted factors … According to the revised Defense Law, could this unrest be an excuse for the CCP to go to war?
In world history, only fascist regimes like the Japanese Empire have seen this as an excuse to go to war.
From the source of the CCP’s imports, countries that import petroleum, feed grains, metal ores, and high-tech ingredients (such as crisps) are distributed to the Middle East, North, and North. South America, Australia, whose main consumer markets for industrial products are Europe and America.
With the military might of the CCP, they could not occupy more than half of the world, nor achieve exports to European countries and the United States through war.
If the CCP wants to use war to take control of resource-producing countries such as the Middle East, South America and elsewhere, and thus plunder the resources there, it is virtually incapable of doing so. If the CCP provokes such a war, the aforementioned import-export path will be fundamentally cut off. After most of the strategic raw materials that had been stored before the war were consumed, its war economy would inevitably be in dire straits.
If the economic benefits of the CCP cannot be obtained through war, why must the CCP expand “conditions of war” and list economic needs as an important reason for “waging war”? It seems that the expansion of “war conditions” by the CCP essentially only adds an economic excuse to implement the strategy of war preparation. Their intention was to show the United States a military threat.
Xi Jinping’s Last Speech: “Ending War With War”
Recently, the CCP suddenly celebrated the Korean War, Xi Jinping gave a special speech during the celebration, having to “speak to them in a language they can hear and understand.” It’s about using the war to end the war and using weapons to stop the spear marks, ”Xi said.
Chinese state media Duowei News reported under the headline “Xi Jinping Rarely Uses Harsh Language To Warn United States That China Might Have Worst Plan Against China. National and American” on October 24; “Xi Jinping’s Speech to Celebrate US House of Representatives, US and Taiwan Should Read to Find Out” on October 23.
Why is the CCP celebrating the Korean War? Li Minh Giang, associate professor at the Indonesian University of Technology, pointed out that over the past two years, Sino-US relations have steadily deteriorated, with Xi Jinping rarely criticizing the United States in such words. hard. “Speaking forcefully this way is very different from what he spoke on the two international occasions last year.”
Singaporean newspaper Lianhe Zaobao, citing analysts, said Xi Jinping’s statement was intended to send an internal political signal, rally the people, boost morale and let the people enter the country. to fight ”for the long chaotic external situation, and at the same time to prepare his thoughts for the struggle.
The South China Morning Post reported that Lei Loi, a researcher at the Chinese Institute of International Studies, said that for China, using strong language does not mean being ready to fight, which is psychological preparation and preparation for the worst.
So what is the meaning of the CCP to “take the war to end the war”?
China and the United States are currently in a cold war, this cold war was started by the CCP through three military threats against the United States in the first half of this year. The United States has only started taking countermeasures since July of this year, after the CCP’s actions erupted. In this case, shouldn’t the CCP “cease fire”? Apparently, the CCP has reproduced the old tactic of “calling a thief to catch a thief.”
The CCP’s military threats demonstrated its total hostility towards the United States, which made the United States understand the meaning of its international relations with China. Since then, the United States has given a timely and profound reflection on the failure of its policy of “communication” with China over the years: the decision to change the past principles of trust, cooperation and expectations for China. CCP, as well as the adjustment of US-China relations, including the economic confrontation during the Cold War.
When the United States seized the CCP spies on a large scale, blocking the CCP’s space to steal American technical secrets, restricting the supply of high-tech products and technologies useful for openness. Extending the CCP’s arms to prepare for war, while raising tariffs to reduce the US-China trade deficit, the CCP seems to view these sanctions as the “big stick” or “spear” of the United States. United, refuses to admit the long-term damage it has inflicted on the United States.
So, is it possible to use the threat of war to end US economic and technological sanctions against China? Based on the author’s analysis above, the answer is not possible.